The Capex Cycle Nobody Is Underwriting Yet
Order books across industrials have compounded for seven quarters while the market still prices these businesses on trough-cycle multiples. We size the gap.
Company work, sector deep dives, market structure and strategy notes. Filter by category or search the full archive.
Order books across industrials have compounded for seven quarters while the market still prices these businesses on trough-cycle multiples. We size the gap.
9 reports shown
Order books across industrials have compounded for seven quarters while the market still prices these businesses on trough-cycle multiples. We size the gap.
Deposit repricing is not uniform. We decompose the NIM impact across eight lenders and identify which balance sheets absorb it best.
Ten years of forward-return data conditioned on entry valuation. The distribution is wider than the averages suggest.
Channel checks across four sub-segments suggest inventory normalisation is further along than reported volumes imply.
The regime filter triggered on 29 July. We publish the exact rule, the historical hit rate, and the cost of ignoring it.
Impact-cost analysis on 340 smallcaps shows how much of the index cannot be exited at screen prices in a stressed tape.
Contribution margin per order is finally positive at scale for two operators. We model what breakeven actually requires.
Peak demand has broken its trend line three summers running. We separate weather, data centres and genuine industrial load.
Our forty-check forensic screen run across the Nifty 500. Cash conversion and receivable ageing did most of the flagging.
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Single-company work: full model, reverse-DCF, accounting screens and a maintained thesis.
2 reports →
Industry structure, competitive intensity and where profit pools are travelling.
2 reports →
Index valuation, breadth, flows and positioning — the tape your holdings trade on.
2 reports →
How the rule-based frameworks are behaving, and why they are positioned as they are.
1 report →
Every report is written against a stated market backdrop. These are the readings the desk is working from — published so you can see the context a view was formed in, and judge it later against what actually happened.
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